MLB · 팀·시즌별총득점 holeㆍ짝

총득점 홀짝 분포.

"홀/짝" 마켓은 두 팀 점수 합의 홀수·짝수 여부에 베팅하는 상품입니다. 이론상 50/50 이지만 실제 MLB 에선 52–58% 수준의 홀 편향이 관찰됩니다. 팀·시즌별 분해해 구조적 편향과 일시적 표본 을 구분해주세요.

2025 리그 전체 홀 비율

58.6%

샘플 4,846건

분석 시즌

2021–2025

이론상

50/50

독립 득점 모형 기준

2025 시즌

홀 비율 내림차순

팀	경기	홀 경기	짝 경기	평균 총득점	홀 비율
1Pittsburgh Pirates	162	114	48	7.58	70.4%
2Minnesota Twins	160	104	56	9.01	65.0%
3Texas Rangers	162	105	57	7.96	64.8%
4Atlanta Braves	162	104	58	9.00	64.2%
5Los Angeles Angels	162	100	62	9.32	61.7%
6Los Angeles Dodgers	160	98	62	9.34	61.3%
7St. Louis Cardinals	162	99	63	8.91	61.1%
8Oakland Athletics	162	98	64	9.57	60.5%
9Boston Red Sox	162	98	64	9.02	60.5%
10Chicago Cubs	160	96	64	8.93	60.0%
11Baltimore Orioles	162	97	65	9.04	59.9%
12Milwaukee Brewers	162	96	66	8.89	59.3%
13Seattle Mariners	162	96	66	9.01	59.3%
14Washington Nationals	162	96	66	9.79	59.3%
15Cincinnati Reds	161	95	66	8.64	59.0%
16San Diego Padres	162	95	67	8.17	58.6%
17San Francisco Giants	161	93	68	8.57	57.8%
18New York Mets	162	93	69	9.14	57.4%
19Tampa Bay Rays	162	93	69	8.62	57.4%
20Kansas City Royals	162	92	70	7.95	56.8%
21Chicago White Sox	159	90	69	8.62	56.6%
22Toronto Blue Jays	161	90	71	9.39	55.9%
23New York Yankees	161	90	71	9.47	55.9%
24Miami Marlins	162	89	73	9.30	54.9%
25Arizona Diamondbacks	162	88	74	9.73	54.3%
26Philadelphia Phillies	162	88	74	8.80	54.3%
27Detroit Tigers	162	87	75	8.94	53.7%
28Houston Astros	161	86	75	8.34	53.4%
29Cleveland Guardians	162	86	76	7.98	53.1%
30Colorado Rockies	162	82	80	9.99	50.6%

홀 비율 내림차순

팀	경기	홀 경기	짝 경기	평균 총득점	홀 비율
1St. Louis Cardinals	162	111	51	8.59	68.5%
2Colorado Rockies	162	103	59	9.94	63.6%
3Detroit Tigers	160	98	62	8.14	61.3%
4Arizona Diamondbacks	162	98	64	10.33	60.5%
5Boston Red Sox	162	98	64	9.25	60.5%
6Toronto Blue Jays	161	97	64	8.76	60.2%
7Philadelphia Phillies	162	97	65	8.98	59.9%
8Chicago Cubs	162	97	65	8.67	59.9%
9San Diego Padres	162	97	65	8.82	59.9%
10Cincinnati Reds	162	97	65	8.60	59.9%
11Seattle Mariners	162	97	65	7.92	59.9%
12Tampa Bay Rays	162	97	65	7.82	59.9%
13Oakland Athletics	162	97	65	8.69	59.9%
14Kansas City Royals	161	96	65	8.55	59.6%
15Los Angeles Dodgers	162	96	66	9.43	59.3%
16Pittsburgh Pirates	162	96	66	8.67	59.3%
17Chicago White Sox	161	95	66	8.14	59.0%
18Houston Astros	161	95	66	8.63	59.0%
19Texas Rangers	162	95	67	8.77	58.6%
20Minnesota Twins	161	94	67	9.08	58.4%
21Los Angeles Angels	162	94	68	8.84	58.0%
22San Francisco Giants	162	94	68	8.59	58.0%
23New York Yankees	161	92	69	9.17	57.1%
24Atlanta Braves	161	92	69	8.09	57.1%
25Washington Nationals	162	92	70	8.79	56.8%
26Milwaukee Brewers	162	92	70	8.75	56.8%
27Cleveland Guardians	161	91	70	8.25	56.5%
28New York Mets	162	91	71	9.04	56.2%
29Miami Marlins	162	90	72	9.12	55.6%
30Baltimore Orioles	162	87	75	9.17	53.7%

홀 비율 내림차순

팀	경기	홀 경기	짝 경기	평균 총득점	홀 비율
1Cleveland Guardians	162	111	51	8.39	68.5%
2Cincinnati Reds	162	110	52	9.90	67.9%
3Toronto Blue Jays	162	105	57	8.75	64.8%
4Seattle Mariners	162	105	57	8.75	64.8%
5New York Mets	160	103	57	9.01	64.4%
6Colorado Rockies	162	104	58	10.36	64.2%
7Oakland Athletics	162	101	61	9.31	62.3%
8Philadelphia Phillies	162	101	61	9.33	62.3%
9Baltimore Orioles	162	101	61	9.17	62.3%
10Chicago White Sox	161	99	62	9.17	61.5%
11Tampa Bay Rays	162	99	63	9.41	61.1%
12Washington Nationals	162	99	63	9.54	61.1%
13New York Yankees	162	99	63	8.46	61.1%
14Miami Marlins	161	98	63	8.62	60.9%
15St. Louis Cardinals	162	98	64	9.56	60.5%
16Los Angeles Dodgers	162	97	65	9.91	59.9%
17Pittsburgh Pirates	162	96	66	9.15	59.3%
18Boston Red Sox	161	95	66	9.58	59.0%
19Atlanta Braves	161	93	68	10.30	57.8%
20San Francisco Giants	162	93	69	8.60	57.4%
21Kansas City Royals	162	93	69	9.48	57.4%
22Detroit Tigers	162	93	69	8.65	57.4%
23Arizona Diamondbacks	162	93	69	9.30	57.4%
24San Diego Padres	162	92	70	8.64	56.8%
25Chicago Cubs	162	90	72	9.52	55.6%
26Texas Rangers	162	85	77	9.86	52.5%
27Houston Astros	162	85	77	9.41	52.5%
28Los Angeles Angels	162	84	78	9.68	51.9%
29Minnesota Twins	162	83	79	8.87	51.2%
30Milwaukee Brewers	162	83	79	8.49	51.2%

홀 비율 내림차순

팀	경기	홀 경기	짝 경기	평균 총득점	홀 비율
1San Diego Padres	162	105	57	8.43	64.8%
2Miami Marlins	162	104	58	7.79	64.2%
3New York Yankees	160	102	58	8.49	63.8%
4Minnesota Twins	162	100	62	8.52	61.7%
5Colorado Rockies	162	99	63	9.70	61.1%
6Toronto Blue Jays	161	98	63	8.99	60.9%
7Cleveland Guardians	162	98	64	8.22	60.5%
8Atlanta Braves	162	98	64	8.63	60.5%
9Houston Astros	162	97	65	7.75	59.9%
10Los Angeles Angels	162	97	65	7.97	59.9%
11San Francisco Giants	162	97	65	8.72	59.9%
12Texas Rangers	162	96	66	8.95	59.3%
13Arizona Diamondbacks	161	95	66	8.91	59.0%
14Boston Red Sox	160	94	66	9.46	58.8%
15Cincinnati Reds	161	94	67	9.04	58.4%
16Chicago Cubs	161	94	67	8.56	58.4%
17Oakland Athletics	162	94	68	8.26	58.0%
18Philadelphia Phillies	161	93	68	8.84	57.8%
19Tampa Bay Rays	160	92	68	7.90	57.5%
20Milwaukee Brewers	162	93	69	8.72	57.4%
21Seattle Mariners	162	93	69	8.10	57.4%
22St. Louis Cardinals	162	91	71	8.70	56.2%
23Chicago White Sox	162	91	71	8.66	56.2%
24Detroit Tigers	161	90	71	7.81	55.9%
25Baltimore Orioles	160	89	71	8.43	55.6%
26Los Angeles Dodgers	162	88	74	8.40	54.3%
27Washington Nationals	160	86	74	9.01	53.8%
28Pittsburgh Pirates	162	86	76	8.69	53.1%
29New York Mets	162	86	76	8.51	53.1%
30Kansas City Royals	160	76	84	8.90	47.5%

홀 비율 내림차순

팀	경기	홀 경기	짝 경기	평균 총득점	홀 비율
1New York Mets	162	106	56	8.05	65.4%
2San Francisco Giants	162	104	58	8.63	64.2%
3Colorado Rockies	161	103	58	9.53	64.0%
4St. Louis Cardinals	161	101	60	8.53	62.7%
5Los Angeles Dodgers	160	100	60	8.59	62.5%
6Detroit Tigers	162	101	61	8.97	62.3%
7Cincinnati Reds	161	100	61	9.53	62.1%
8Oakland Athletics	162	100	62	8.83	61.7%
9Cleveland Guardians	161	99	62	8.89	61.5%
10Atlanta Braves	161	98	63	8.98	60.9%
11Texas Rangers	162	98	64	8.89	60.5%
12Chicago Cubs	161	97	64	9.56	60.2%
13Philadelphia Phillies	162	97	65	9.13	59.9%
14Arizona Diamondbacks	162	96	66	9.70	59.3%
15Miami Marlins	161	95	66	8.18	59.0%
16Pittsburgh Pirates	161	95	66	8.90	59.0%
17San Diego Padres	161	95	66	8.85	59.0%
18Minnesota Twins	162	95	67	9.65	58.6%
19Baltimore Orioles	162	95	67	9.97	58.6%
20Washington Nationals	161	94	67	9.54	58.4%
21Kansas City Royals	162	92	70	9.10	56.8%
22Seattle Mariners	162	91	71	8.92	56.2%
23Tampa Bay Rays	162	90	72	9.31	55.6%
24Chicago White Sox	162	90	72	8.84	55.6%
25Los Angeles Angels	162	89	73	9.43	54.9%
26Houston Astros	162	89	73	9.39	54.9%
27Boston Red Sox	160	85	75	9.79	53.1%
28Milwaukee Brewers	162	85	77	8.40	52.5%
29New York Yankees	161	82	79	8.55	50.9%
30Toronto Blue Jays	161	78	83	9.29	48.4%

관찰

팀별 홀 비율이 65% 를 넘어가면 다음 해에 평균 회귀(regression to the mean)할 가능성이 높습니다. 한 시즌의 극단값을 그대로 다음 시즌에 적용하는 것은 추세 착각입니다.

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